thebiglemon Posted January 3, 2017 Report Share Posted January 3, 2017 Our record against teams in the bottom 7 is very good. We lost once to Motherwell but apart from that zero defeats to County, Killie, Accies, ICT, Dundee If we continue in this vein i.e. losing only one out of 10 games to our main rivals, are we assured of staying up??? Just a (somewhat pointless) thought Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Col Posted January 4, 2017 Report Share Posted January 4, 2017 Good question. It would depend on what they all do against other teams plus if our games were draws or wins. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lady-isobel-barnett Posted January 4, 2017 Report Share Posted January 4, 2017 Not really answering the question as such but 2nd bottom have only accumulated more than a point a game a couple of times in the last ten or so years. We've actually had quite a lot of draws against the teams around us. Five have been at home so if we could improve on that aspect and keep up our away form we'd most likely be safe. We play four games at home to other bottom seven clubs before the break. Key matches. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Graemei Posted January 5, 2017 Report Share Posted January 5, 2017 I think if we only lose one game to the rivals around us at the bottom six then, yeah we'll be fine. Our run of form going into the break is only beaten by the top three in the league. Bit of a pity it's just before the winter break! I'd say +38pts mark would be clear of 11th and 12th place. ICT and Accies can't buy a win right now, can't see that improving much in the second half of the season. We absolutely cannot lose to them up there at the end of January though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twinny Posted January 5, 2017 Report Share Posted January 5, 2017 The question is impossible to answer because there are too many possibilities (are we drawing with or beating the teams around us?) and because it is far too early. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Woodstock Jag Posted January 5, 2017 Report Share Posted January 5, 2017 Points required to finish above 11th since the 12 team top tier and 38 games inaugurated: 2016: 37 2015: 37 2014: 36 (38/39 excluding Hearts points deduction) 2013: 42 2012: 34 2011: 34 2010: 34 2009: 38 2008: 41 2007: 37 2006: 33/34 2005: 35 2004: 35 2003: 33 2002: 41 2001: 36 Mean points required ignoring deductions: 36.63 Median points required ignoring deductions: 36.5 Modal points required ignoring deductions: 34 or 37 Points required to finish above 12th since the 12 team top tier and 38 games inaugurated: 2016: 29 2015: 31 2014: 24 (36 excluding Hearts points deduction) 2013: 31 2012: 26 2011: 27 2010: 32 2009: 37/38 2008: 14 (24 excluding Gretna points deduction) 2007: 33 2006: 19 2005: 34 2004: 27 2003: 29 2002: 22 2001: 31 Mean points required ignoring deductions: 29.28 Median points required ignoring deductions: 30 Modal points required ignoring deductions: 31 37 points therefore gives you a greater than evens chance of being guaranteed safety based on previous experience. Higher required points totals for finishing above 11th generally but don't always coincide with instances where the points required to finish above 12th is lower. For a team confident of not finishing last, therefore, avoiding relegation is more likely to mean a preference for a team not being cut adrift from the rest of the pack. Over the course of 38 games it's virtually impossible to say whether avoiding defeat or whatever against a certain batch of clubs will be enough. Too much depends on whether the bottom six as a whole is bunched up (think our first season back) or heavily stratified into, say, two groups of three. It is also rare that there is a massive gap before the split, so unless you have points in the bag that can change things very quickly. We have 17 league matches left (12 pre-split) and we have a better than evens chance of being above 11th if we earn 15 points or better from those games. We have still to play every other team at least once, and Inverness twice. It stands to reason that if we win every match against every team below us, or even lose one, we should be safe. But to be absolutely sure of safety without any new records being set for the league we would need 6 wins and 2 draws (20 points). What would assist this inquiry is if there were a way to get records of the number of points needed to finish above 7th in any given season as being in the top six after 33 games obviously also secures safety, but my impression is this figure is typically slightly higher than the number of points needed by 38 games to finish above 11th. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Jukebox Rebel Posted January 6, 2017 Report Share Posted January 6, 2017 Defending Scottish champions of course 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jagfox Posted January 7, 2017 Report Share Posted January 7, 2017 Defending Scottish champions of course Have you got one for this season? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Jukebox Rebel Posted January 7, 2017 Report Share Posted January 7, 2017 ^ Naw, but not to worry, I know a great place where we can all keep an eye on it... http://tinyurl.com/hgpsruo Currently top of the League with a game in hand to our closest challengers, Motherwell. What a team. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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