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TartanC4

Bottom of the championship

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Where we deserve to be probably. With 14 games left we possibly need a minimum of 19 points to avoid automatic relegation and possibly 21 or 22 to avoid the play-off berth. Can't really see who is going to provide the ammunition and fire-power nor the defensive cover to get anywhere near those totals, but perhaps we live in hope?

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I suggested a draw would not be a disaster prior to the game. If we got a point the weeping and a wailing would be a little diminished...maybe. Like most I'm dissatisfied we got beat but....we move on. It's kind of ironic that those who have slated Campbell in the past should be eating humble pie ( you know who you are ). I'm still sure we will be ok this year and next year the pressure will be really on McCall to deliver. 

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13 minutes ago, dl1971 said:

I suggested a draw would not be a disaster prior to the game. If we got a point the weeping and a wailing would be a little diminished...maybe. Like most I'm dissatisfied we got beat but....we move on. It's kind of ironic that those who have slated Campbell in the past should be eating humble pie ( you know who you are ). I'm still sure we will be ok this year and next year the pressure will be really on McCall to deliver. 

Campbell deserves to be slated for what he did for us- he was awful. He deserves to be praised for what he has done elsewhere which has been nothing short of excellent. But ultimately for me it will mostly be about what he did for us - pretty appalling which I will remember him buy

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8 hours ago, West of Scotland said:

This time last year Caldwell signed Scott McDonald who pretty much saved us single-handedly.

Do we have a saviour this year?

We didn’t know at the time how good McDonald would be though. He got the same treatment Miller did when he came.  Just as we can’t know how the players we have just signed will work out for us. 
This season, like last is going to the last few games until we know our fate

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1 hour ago, Lenziejag said:

We didn’t know at the time how good McDonald would be though. He got the same treatment Miller did when he came.  Just as we can’t know how the players we have just signed will work out for us. 
This season, like last is going to the last few games until we know our fate

That pretty much sums it for me going forward. We don't know what'll happen vs Ayr let alone any further forward.

There are players to gel into the squad. We have to improve set pieces at both ends.

Yesterday was bad but it won't be blowing a gale every match day down the line.

McCall has a massive job on his hands but he's aware of that.

Buckle up Jags it's going to be a bumpy road for the next few months...Where it takes us nobody actually knows!

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59 minutes ago, jaggy said:

Unless we start to get some clean sheets nothing will improve 

We should be Bold and sign Daz-zling Persil, a good Ariel defender too :getmecoat:

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56 minutes ago, jagfox said:

That pretty much sums it for me going forward. We don't know what'll happen vs Ayr let alone any further forward.

There are players to gel into the squad. We have to improve set pieces at both ends.

Yesterday was bad but it won't be blowing a gale every match day down the line.

McCall has a massive job on his hands but he's aware of that.

Buckle up Jags it's going to be a bumpy road for the next few months...Where it takes us nobody actually knows!

The bit in bold is very true and applies to every team in this league bar Dundee United.

I think GC's  league  record this season was played 5 won 0 drawn 2 lost 3 to give an average points per game of 0.4

McCall's league record has been played 16 won 6 drawn 2 lost 8 to give an average points per game of 1.25. Assuming the same return for the remaining 14 games means 17.5 points and we get 39/40 points which is probably enough to avoid automatic relegation but be somewhere near the relegation playoff spot. If he had been in charge all season we would be very much mid table. McCalls average points per game throughout his career is over 1.4 which if he did produced in the last 14 games would take us to 42 points which probably avoids the relegation playoff.

On average over the last 6 seasons 4th place needs 57 points with the lowest being 52 points. However in general the points needed to make the top 4 are less if there is no team detached at the bottom and the relegation battle involves lots of teams. This season looks like pretty much everyone could be involved in the relgation battle until the last few weeks so a top 4 place is probably likely with around 50 points.

To get to that total our average points per game needs to be 2. Last season in the last 14 games our record was played 8 won drew 3 lost 3 to give an average points per game of 1.92. To win 9 and draw 1 out of the last 14 looks a big ask but then again 8 of our last 14 are at home as opposed to 6 out of 14 last season so if we can turn our home form around then its not impossible.

To my eye our playing style and tactics have improved and become more consitent under McCall despite some setbacks (Ayr away, Arbroath home and away, Dunfermline away) and that is supported by the results and an increase in average points per game.

The key question is can we improve our home form. McCalls long term record supports that he knows how to do that and that we should avoid relegation but it will be a bumpy ride right up to the last few weeks.

 

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4 minutes ago, laukat said:

The bit in bold is very true and applies to every team in this league bar Dundee United.

I think GC's  league  record this season was played 5 won 0 drawn 2 lost 3 to give an average points per game of 0.4

McCall's league record has been played 16 won 6 drawn 2 lost 8 to give an average points per game of 1.25. Assuming the same return for the remaining 14 games means 17.5 points and we get 39/40 points which is probably enough to avoid automatic relegation but be somewhere near the relegation playoff spot. If he had been in charge all season we would be very much mid table. McCalls average points per game throughout his career is over 1.4 which if he did produced in the last 14 games would take us to 42 points which probably avoids the relegation playoff.

On average over the last 6 seasons 4th place needs 57 points with the lowest being 52 points. However in general the points needed to make the top 4 are less if there is no team detached at the bottom and the relegation battle involves lots of teams. This season looks like pretty much everyone could be involved in the relgation battle until the last few weeks so a top 4 place is probably likely with around 50 points.

To get to that total our average points per game needs to be 2. Last season in the last 14 games our record was played 8 won drew 3 lost 3 to give an average points per game of 1.92. To win 9 and draw 1 out of the last 14 looks a big ask but then again 8 of our last 14 are at home as opposed to 6 out of 14 last season so if we can turn our home form around then its not impossible.

To my eye our playing style and tactics have improved and become more consitent under McCall despite some setbacks (Ayr away, Arbroath home and away, Dunfermline away) and that is supported by the results and an increase in average points per game.

The key question is can we improve our home form. McCalls long term record supports that he knows how to do that and that we should avoid relegation but it will be a bumpy ride right up to the last few weeks.

 

Thanks for this, I was doing a similar exercise, slightly differently probably whilst you were doing this!

I took the average points per game from the last round of everyone playing eachother, ie most recent form but of everyone playing everyone and then added that to the points already gained.

What it did was give a surprising result unlike any of the last number of seasons in that less points were required to get into play offs (46), but more to avoid relegation or relegation play off.

Such is the bunching up when you do this, that 42 points is the automatic relegation total, 43 the relegation play off, and 46 the last promotion play off spot. This underlines that we could have a very bumpy ride and very exciting end to the season, if just 4 points do end up separating bottom from 4th.

What, of course, both of our analyses ignore is the effect of January signings.

I predicted last night - before doing this exercise - that we would get 21 points over the remainder of the season, but on the basis of the above that would still leave us biting our nails, but if we can do only a little better than that, we may have promotion play offs to look forward to!

 

 

 

 

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3 minutes ago, jaf said:

Thanks for this, I was doing a similar exercise, slightly differently probably whilst you were doing this!

I took the average points per game from the last round of everyone playing eachother, ie most recent form but of everyone playing everyone and then added that to the points already gained.

What it did was give a surprising result unlike any of the last number of seasons in that less points were required to get into play offs (46), but more to avoid relegation or relegation play off.

Such is the bunching up when you do this, that 42 points is the automatic relegation total, 43 the relegation play off, and 46 the last promotion play off spot. This underlines that we could have a very bumpy ride and very exciting end to the season, if just 4 points do end up separating bottom from 4th.

What, of course, both of our analyses ignore is the effect of January signings.

I predicted last night - before doing this exercise - that we would get 21 points over the remainder of the season, but on the basis of the above that would still leave us biting our nails, but if we can do only a little better than that, we may have promotion play offs to look forward to!

Its good to hear your maths is not far away from mine. Part of the reason for doing the maths was to show that we not doomed. On current form which is based on the pre-January squad we might just avoid relegation so we are far from doomed.

The other part was that everyone I think everyone agrees the new additions improve the squad so it should be possible to get more points than current form but that will only be viewable over 14 games not after a bad away performance.

Its no impossible this season that we  will see a team both avoid relegation but at the same time make the top 4 if they win their last game.

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I like the stats analysis from the above postings, they do show trends and give a reasonably accurate forecast of what we need to achieve …. but something that occurs to me is PTFC have not been a 'lucky' team this season [barring the massive turnaround against Dundee]. I'm a firm believer in that old saying of, 'the more I practice, the luckier I get'. To this end, I think the team needs to get the out of shape players fit [expl; Mackinnon], and the fragile ones more mentally alert [expl. Zanatta]

Some wins and some good performances should have this group of players playing as a top four team …. but they need to start on Friday night at 19.05!

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I remember that in those far off days (2001) when we were topping the third tier (whatever is was then called), we had a thread with Promotion Watch and Championship Watch (ie how many points did we then need to clinch promotion and thereafter the league title (no top 4 or play off complications-champions and runners up automatically promoted))? Even with only two straightforward options on the menu, the calculation was quite difficult and open to frequent correction, due to the uncertainties caused by combinations of results involving other teams.

Would any one with statistical/computational/analysis skills be willing on the task of 

1) Play off Watch

2) Avoiding the Play off Watch

3) Avoiding Automatic Relegation Watch?

We will be kind and excuse you from Championship/Automatic Promotion Watch, though if anyone can work out whether that is still a possibility, that would be interesting. Presumably we have to win all of our games, Dundee United lose most of theirs, and Inverness/Ayr United results also need to be carefully managed.

Good luck!

 

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At the moment a couple of wins can take you from bottom of the league to the promotion play off places. We need to go on a good run and get away from the bottom 2. Another defeat on Friday would be concerning as that would be only 1 point from 4 league games in January. Also if results on Saturday goes against us we could find ourselves being detached from the rest of the league.

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34 minutes ago, Auld Jag said:

At the moment a couple of wins can take you from bottom of the league to the promotion play off places. We need to go on a good run and get away from the bottom 2. Another defeat on Friday would be concerning as that would be only 1 point from 4 league games in January. Also if results on Saturday goes against us we could find ourselves being detached from the rest of the league.

especially as a couple of teams in the bottom half have 1 and 2 games in hand over us

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Lots of permutations and ifs and buts on here. But the reality is that we are the worst team in the league, and there can be no doubt about that. To be charitable I'll say that the conditions at Arbroath might have played a big part in yet another defeat to a part-time team, but if we don't beat Ayr on Friday then I might even put money on us getting relegated.

Oh, and people often talk about goalkeepers inspiring their defence. Scott Fox.... maybe he should considering further his international career with another team.... maybe in the juniors?

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3 hours ago, Jaggernaut said:

Lots of permutations and ifs and buts on here. But the reality is that we are the worst team in the league, and there can be no doubt about that. To be charitable I'll say that the conditions at Arbroath might have played a big part in yet another defeat to a part-time team, but if we don't beat Ayr on Friday then I might even put money on us getting relegated.

Oh, and people often talk about goalkeepers inspiring their defence. Scott Fox.... maybe he should considering further his international career with another team.... maybe in the juniors?

I watched Pollok play Fauldhouse United on Saturday afternoon [SJC 5th Round], believe me when I say Fox would not get into the Pollok team

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I don't disagree with any of the comments about the scale of the job IMC has to keep us in this league (never mind get to 4th), the quality of the squad and some of the poor performances. 

I also think that the reason for our collective depression plummeting to an even lower level is that we actually went to Arbroath with renewed hope only to be let down by an abject performance. 

Where did this 'new hope' come from - the team showing signs of actually playing better, starting to look like a football team, a promising transfer window where the general perception was we brought it better than we off loaded! 

Afraid as Jags fans we just have to keep the faith, stay strong and be positive in supporting the team. 

We all know life is not easy supporting the Jags. 

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4 hours ago, exiledjag said:

I don't disagree with any of the comments about the scale of the job IMC has to keep us in this league (never mind get to 4th), the quality of the squad and some of the poor performances. 

I also think that the reason for our collective depression plummeting to an even lower level is that we actually went to Arbroath with renewed hope only to be let down by an abject performance. 

Where did this 'new hope' come from - the team showing signs of actually playing better, starting to look like a football team, a promising transfer window where the general perception was we brought it better than we off loaded! 

Afraid as Jags fans we just have to keep the faith, stay strong and be positive in supporting the team. 

We all know life is not easy supporting the Jags. 

Agree entirely. Where would we be without hope.

If there are straws to be clutched at - lets get a collective clutch going.!!

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