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What if they shut down the season?


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14 hours ago, Norgethistle said:

Sorry that BS and Sturgeon has already been caught on that stat. She only counts it as a COVID death if the person dies within 28 days of testing positive. UK counts all deaths of anyone who has at anytime tested positive. Even NRS is counting way under UK. 

Real figures here from https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/files//statistics/covid19/covid-deaths-report-week-31.pdf 

The discrepancy here (as I understand it) is that the 28 day rule applies only to the *daily* death count being reported in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, but that the overall figures, which use weekly data, still count all new registered deaths where it is mentioned on the death certificate.

The report you link to says:

“Of the total number of deaths registered in week 31 (27 July to 2 August), there were 7 where COVID-19 was mentioned on the death certificate, a decrease of 1 from the previous week (20 to 26 July), but the weekly total has remained similar over the latest three weeks.”

It then also shows a graph where total registered deaths increased from 4,174 (as at 5 July) to 4,208 (as at 2 August), so an increase of 34 deaths.

If England were seeing the same sort of levels of death, their figure for that four week period would be about 420 deaths.

As javeajag alludes to, it’s about five times that. The figure of 9 for Scotland was a bit misleading but its undoubtedly the case England is doing a lot worse on death than Scotland at the moment.

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6 hours ago, Woodstock Jag said:

The discrepancy here (as I understand it) is that the 28 day rule applies only to the *daily* death count being reported in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, but that the overall figures, which use weekly data, still count all new registered deaths where it is mentioned on the death certificate.

The report you link to says:

“Of the total number of deaths registered in week 31 (27 July to 2 August), there were 7 where COVID-19 was mentioned on the death certificate, a decrease of 1 from the previous week (20 to 26 July), but the weekly total has remained similar over the latest three weeks.”

It then also shows a graph where total registered deaths increased from 4,174 (as at 5 July) to 4,208 (as at 2 August), so an increase of 34 deaths.

If England were seeing the same sort of levels of death, their figure for that four week period would be about 420 deaths.

As javeajag alludes to, it’s about five times that. The figure of 9 for Scotland was a bit misleading but its undoubtedly the case England is doing a lot worse on death than Scotland at the moment.

This all seems correct. But of course takes no account of either demographics, not population density. 
 

I understand that if you factor population density into the equation the death rate in Scotland is very similar to The most comparable areas of England. 

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18 minutes ago, jaf said:

This all seems correct. But of course takes no account of either demographics, not population density. 
 

I understand that if you factor population density into the equation the death rate in Scotland is very similar to The most comparable areas of England. 

And your ‘understanding’ would be wrong ....

the rolling daily death figure of seven days in England is 56.....in Scotland its 0/1....adjusting for population Scotland should be c 8/9 which is a long way from 56 ......population density can’t make that up.....England has the worst excess death figure in Europe 

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34 minutes ago, jaf said:

This all seems correct. But of course takes no account of either demographics, not population density. 
 

I understand that if you factor population density into the equation the death rate in Scotland is very similar to The most comparable areas of England. 

And comparing Scotland as a population against similar sized nations it doesn’t size up very well.

UK and Scotland’s stats (on paper) are atrocious against other countries but to be fair not all measure the same.

Norway or Denmark vs Scotland, and Scotland is left behind in testing, (800k, 1.2M vrs 390k), and Norway and Denmark fair way better than Scotland on cases and deaths (216, 617 Vs  2491/4208), plus easing restrictions more smoothly and coherent.

I don’t think the blame for UK or Scotland’s figures can solely lie at the feet of Westminster or Holyrood, there seems to be growing a culture back home of “**** that, I can do what I want” when it came to social distancing and acting sensibly, and that’s on both sides of the border.

Using the excuse the “England is worse” @javajag would be the same as McColl stating “We may have been relegated but have you seen Stranraer”

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16 minutes ago, javeajag said:

And your ‘understanding’ would be wrong ....

the rolling daily death figure of seven days in England is 56.....in Scotland its 0/1....adjusting for population Scotland should be c 8/9 which is a long way from 56 ......population density can’t make that up.....England has the worst excess death figure in Europe 

What is it in south west England? 

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16 minutes ago, javeajag said:

And your ‘understanding’ would be wrong ....

the rolling daily death figure of seven days in England is 56.....in Scotland its 0/1....adjusting for population Scotland should be c 8/9 which is a long way from 56 ......population density can’t make that up.....England has the worst excess death figure in Europe 

Or you could be wrong?

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23 minutes ago, javeajag said:

And your ‘understanding’ would be wrong ....

 

Not sure which is wrong - this article with its detailed analysis and graphs, or your usual half-read knee jerk assertion....

https://www.these-islands.co.uk/publications/i355/covid_19_why_scotland_vs_england_comparisons_are_misleading.aspx
 

You will recall my original point (which you claim is wrong) is that if you compare Scotland to areas of England thought to have similar population density there is not much difference  

 

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7 hours ago, Woodstock Jag said:

You’ve included some of the annotations and footnotes in there.

Its a lot simpler than that.

Regulation 6 of the Scottish Regulations is the one to do with limits on inter-household gatherings.

If you are indoors, the limit is to three households meeting at the same time. The guidance also urges those households to socially distance, but that’s not actually law.

If you are outdoors, the limit is to five households. Same principle on social distancing as before.

There are then exceptions that allow gatherings from more than three/five households, such as for work, childcare and education settings.

A gathering is (in layman terms) when people meet up with one another to socialise for whatever purpose. You’re not in the same gathering just because you’re in the same pub but if you’re hanging out as a group, or engaging in some sort of organised group activity, that’s different.

You don’t need to be a lawyer to work this out though: all of these rules are also set out in the Scottish Government’s guidance on its website: https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-phase-3-staying-safe-and-protecting-others/pages/gatherings-and-occasions/

Sometimes the guidance has been more restrictive than the law during the pandemic, strongly advising against things that aren’t technically illegal, but the two seem to line up quite nicely at the moment (on gatherings, at least).

I appreciate and thank you for the clarification's.

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3 minutes ago, jaf said:

Not sure which is wrong - this article with its detailed analysis and graphs, or your usual half-read knee jerk assertion....

https://www.these-islands.co.uk/publications/i355/covid_19_why_scotland_vs_england_comparisons_are_misleading.aspx
 

You will recall my original point (which you claim is wrong) is that if you compare Scotland to areas of England thought to have similar population density there is not much difference  

 

These Islands is  a ‘unionist ‘ group with an anti snp agenda and are clearly not objective 

I understand you want to show their is no difference for political reasons but in reality there is

 

E53D04A2-7C5C-41E4-822F-435DA10CC3AA.jpeg

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2 hours ago, jaf said:

This all seems correct. But of course takes no account of either demographics, not population density. 

I understand that if you factor population density into the equation the death rate in Scotland is very similar to The most comparable areas of England. 

You’re right that that doesn’t control for “fault-free” explanations like demographics/population density.

Its also correct to say that Scotland doesn’t compare well with other parts of Europe.

That said, the higher rates of cases (not sure about deaths) in England seem to be in Northern cities, rather than, say, the South East of England where population is densest. That’s why the lockdown restrictions in those areas are more acute.

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23 hours ago, javeajag said:

So imagine the scene .....the govt allows football to restart and you agree a strict protocol to make that happen......it then turns out players at a club have broken these protocols and tested positive...do you 

A ...go to the provisions you agreed to put in place and the actions you agreed to take having completed a risk assessment on possible issues and concerns in this situation

B....hold a number of ad hoc meetings and discussions as you react to events as they happen 

C.....check your still getting paid £380,000 a year 

A little birdie tells me it’s £420k p.a. Now

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13 hours ago, javeajag said:

These Islands is  a ‘unionist ‘ group with an anti snp agenda and are clearly not objective 

I understand you want to show their is no difference for political reasons but in reality there is

 

E53D04A2-7C5C-41E4-822F-435DA10CC3AA.jpeg

There’s no politics about it (from me at least)

I made a comment. You said it was wrong. Provide the evidence you said. I now have. regardless of the politics of the source, which facts have they distorted then?q

the problem - as is often the case with you - is you don’t read what people actually post   You answer a different point and then defend your position belligerently   

let me be clear. I am not saying England and Scotland are similar. I am saying countries are not really directly comparable because there are many other factors to consider. The comparison between Scotland and south west England supports that theory. 

you (presumably for political reasons) want to suggest Scotland has done amazingly well. As has been discussed before the care home sector would probably disagree and as nerve has pointed out not in comparison to some other small nations. That said, I discount that for three reasons, firstly I understand The point about lack of comparability  (which you don’t seem to accept) , secondly We are in unprecedented situation and to suggest any of us would have done much better and not made the missteps some politicians have made would entirely be with the benefit of hindsight and unfair regardless of their political hue imo, and finally it’s pretty unedifying time make political capital out of death statistics. That is after all someone’s granny, someone’s son, someone’s mate they go to the football with. So you can keep up the happy clappy politics of this if you wish, but don’t assume that’s wat drives the motivations of others. 

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I should add that I have been to England three times on business in last three weeks -Cumbria, stoke and Worcester. And today I fly to London. 

Whilst the stats don’t lie I feel no less safe there than here and have seen no great difference in how people are behaving.  

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2 hours ago, jaf said:

There’s no politics about it (from me at least)

I made a comment. You said it was wrong. Provide the evidence you said. I now have. regardless of the politics of the source, which facts have they distorted then?q

the problem - as is often the case with you - is you don’t read what people actually post   You answer a different point and then defend your position belligerently   

let me be clear. I am not saying England and Scotland are similar. I am saying countries are not really directly comparable because there are many other factors to consider. The comparison between Scotland and south west England supports that theory. 

you (presumably for political reasons) want to suggest Scotland has done amazingly well. As has been discussed before the care home sector would probably disagree and as nerve has pointed out not in comparison to some other small nations. That said, I discount that for three reasons, firstly I understand The point about lack of comparability  (which you don’t seem to accept) , secondly We are in unprecedented situation and to suggest any of us would have done much better and not made the missteps some politicians have made would entirely be with the benefit of hindsight and unfair regardless of their political hue imo, and finally it’s pretty unedifying time make political capital out of death statistics. That is after all someone’s granny, someone’s son, someone’s mate they go to the football with. So you can keep up the happy clappy politics of this if you wish, but don’t assume that’s wat drives the motivations of others. 

You said provide the evidence underneath a chart eh  providing evidence ......the current infection rate in England is 3 times that of Scotland and the death rate is much higher

the way the countries are compared is using excess deaths - the average 5 years of deaths compared to deaths now .....Scotland and England were very similar to begin with on this measure but have now diverged 

my only real point is that this divergence is the result of 

1. the Scottish govt having set up it’s own advisory group

2. having a clear strategy of virus elimination 

3. being much more cautious 

I’m afraid some countries have done better eg New Zealand , Thailand , Vietnam the question is why and why has the U.K. been such a shambles 

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4 hours ago, sandy said:

In other news, Nisbet banged in 3 goals for Hibs yesterday. The one that got away....

Nisbet and Shankland, 2 players who a few years ago looked as if they would end up part time with a fourth tier club at best. Now they are both in the premier league. Whether it was being released or finding the right manager, who knows. But since McCall was the manager who helped Shankland lets hope he can do it with Thistle players this season.

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3 minutes ago, Auld Jag said:

Nisbet and Shankland, 2 players who a few years ago looked as if they would end up part time with a fourth tier club at best. Now they are both in the premier league. Whether it was being released or finding the right manager, who knows. But since McCall was the manager who helped Shankland lets hope he can do it with Thistle players this season.

I am beginning to fear that we won't have a season to talk of.

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38 minutes ago, Auld Jag said:

Nisbet and Shankland, 2 players who a few years ago looked as if they would end up part time with a fourth tier club at best. Now they are both in the premier league. Whether it was being released or finding the right manager, who knows. But since McCall was the manager who helped Shankland lets hope he can do it with Thistle players this season.

Think there has been a bit of influence from their respective managers but most of the credit for Kevin Nisbett and Lawrence Shankland’s form is down to the players change in attitude and fitness .

 

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41 minutes ago, jlsarmy said:

Think there has been a bit of influence from their respective managers but most of the credit for Kevin Nisbett and Lawrence Shankland’s form is down to the players change in attitude and fitness .

 

Don't disagree. But it is possible the managers took them aside and told them they had the talent but would need to improve their work rate, fitness and they were probably on their last chance to make it as a full time player.

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