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What if they shut down the season?

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32 minutes ago, javeajag said:

The dossier has landed .....

and it takes the SPFL 35 minutes to digest the 200 pages and issue a statement to  say there is not a shred of evidence against them. I wonder how thoroughly they read it 

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I've seen a lot of people making comparissions between Germany and the UK and between the UK and Italy. However comparing against Germany is probably an unfair comparission to hold the present Government accountable to as Germany has funded its healthcare to a superior level for many years on the back of better economy. Italy is probably also an unfair comparission as the Italians did not get the same lead time to respond as the UK Government.

What might be worth a closer look at understanding the effect of the UK Government response is the difference between England, Scotland, Wales, N Ireland and the republic of Ireland. All started from the same position in being about 3 weeks behind mainland Europe and similar healthcare setup. The image below is from this site and usual caveats apply on how good the figures https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps

image.thumb.png.51aa273933a6c5b59fdcb6e8f7b3ac6a.png

It would suggest that the Republic of Ireland has taken action that has better protected its citizens. It also suggests that Northern Ireland has benifited by the acions of the Republic. It also suggests that the Scottish and Welsh Governments actions are in this case hampered by the action taken by the UK government in England.

So if Bojo releases lockdown in England too early it will have a big (probably negative) impact to Scotland and Wales

From a personal stand point none of the governments in the UK have got the response to this correct. The UK Government approach has been really poor almost to the point of criminal but the Scottish Government could have done more. For example whilst the UK government should have stopped all flights or put all travels into automatic 14 day quarantine the Scottish Government could have put temperature tests as the airport to minimise the effect.

From a footballing point of view, I suspect our timeline to a return to football should be behind Ireland. They don't expect a return until 20th July and even that has a lot of caveats. So realistically Scotland should at best start playing in August. However if the schools go back in August along with sporting events then it may be too much at once and football will need to give way.

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4 minutes ago, gianlucatoni said:

a big bundle of nothingness 

Probably but the mismanagement is there for all to see , the farcical vote , the untruths about advances of prize money , the lies about Gretnas loan shown nowhere on 2 sets of accounts.

Not sure if that’s enough for change though 

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11 minutes ago, gianlucatoni said:

a big bundle of nothingness 

Yet still 50,000 people will turn out to watch them regularly

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46 minutes ago, laukat said:

I've seen a lot of people making comparissions between Germany and the UK and between the UK and Italy. However comparing against Germany is probably an unfair comparission to hold the present Government accountable to as Germany has funded its healthcare to a superior level for many years on the back of better economy. Italy is probably also an unfair comparission as the Italians did not get the same lead time to respond as the UK Government.

What might be worth a closer look at understanding the effect of the UK Government response is the difference between England, Scotland, Wales, N Ireland and the republic of Ireland. All started from the same position in being about 3 weeks behind mainland Europe and similar healthcare setup. The image below is from this site and usual caveats apply on how good the figures https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps

image.thumb.png.51aa273933a6c5b59fdcb6e8f7b3ac6a.png

It would suggest that the Republic of Ireland has taken action that has better protected its citizens. It also suggests that Northern Ireland has benifited by the acions of the Republic. It also suggests that the Scottish and Welsh Governments actions are in this case hampered by the action taken by the UK government in England.

So if Bojo releases lockdown in England too early it will have a big (probably negative) impact to Scotland and Wales

From a personal stand point none of the governments in the UK have got the response to this correct. The UK Government approach has been really poor almost to the point of criminal but the Scottish Government could have done more. For example whilst the UK government should have stopped all flights or put all travels into automatic 14 day quarantine the Scottish Government could have put temperature tests as the airport to minimise the effect.

From a footballing point of view, I suspect our timeline to a return to football should be behind Ireland. They don't expect a return until 20th July and even that has a lot of caveats. So realistically Scotland should at best start playing in August. However if the schools go back in August along with sporting events then it may be too much at once and football will need to give way.

1st case in Europe was actually France  on 24th January, Followed by Germany (27th) then Italy (30th) and UK, Spain & Sweden on the 31st. Norway 26th Feb & Denmark 2th Feb.

Interesting is when Lock-downs (Nationally) came in

France - 16th March = 52 Days 

Germany - 22 March = 55 Days

Italy - 21st March = 51 Days

UK - 23rd March =53 Days

Spain - 14th March = 44 Days

Sweden = None

Norway - Social distancing 12th March = 16 Days

Denmark - 13th March = 16 Days

 

Compare the different strategies, length to lock-down, severity of lock-down and there is no rhyme nor reason to either the infection rate per million or death rate per million

 

 

 

10491213-C127-42D2-B94B-A70E9B0722E3.png

Edited by Norgethistle

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11 minutes ago, Norgethistle said:

Compare the different strategies, length to lock-down, severity of lock-down and there is no rhyme nor reason to either the infection rate per million or death rate per million

This might explain part of it 

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There are so many factors. Population age, population density, population health, travel patterns, levels of treatment, maybe even ethnicity (?), culture, enforcement of lockdown, level of immediate infection before anything was even traced, how infections to date affect the next stage...etc etc.

I don't really see how you can compare and make sound judgements.

Either way I think the British government is useless, but I'd decided that already.

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Not in anyway condoning anything that the UK government has done, but I don't think it is a coincidence that the largest city in Europe (London) and U.S.A. (New York) have by far the worst statistical evidence of virus spread. London had gone a long way to skew the UK figures.

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A flaw in all of this, and another potential reason for the discrepancies is because many people get through with mild symptoms we do not truly know the dates of first case. These could have preceded the dates Norge has given by weeks, in which case in a big city like Madrid, London, Paris, NYC, it could be spreading like wildfire whilst the population and government were oblivious,

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15 minutes ago, jaf said:

A flaw in all of this, and another potential reason for the discrepancies is because many people get through with mild symptoms we do not truly know the dates of first case. These could have preceded the dates Norge has given by weeks, in which case in a big city like Madrid, London, Paris, NYC, it could be spreading like wildfire whilst the population and government were oblivious,

Good point. Although Germany has a big population, the cities are not as big as London/Madrid/Paris etc. Biggest is Berlin at 3.5 million, followed by Hamburg at 1.7 million.

S1, S2, S4 all going back to school on Monday. I am a teacher - rule is max 12 in a classroom, means kids cannot get their usual teacher and some cases will have teachers of other subjects supervising them. We will therefore continue with online lessons, but the kids are in school instead of at home. Makes no sense whatsoever. Our kids have been great at following the lessons. This provision will actually make it worse. Unglaublich!

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1 hour ago, javeajag said:

This might explain part of it 

Britain can rest easy with Boris in charge ……. a raging eejit like his US counterpart

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7 minutes ago, gianlucatoni said:

apparently the directors at Thistle haven't received the h*ns dossier yet - they are having trouble locating the pdf file

If they have a decent system then they'll find it in junk

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22 minutes ago, Colognejag said:

Good point. Although Germany has a big population, the cities are not as big as London/Madrid/Paris etc. Biggest is Berlin at 3.5 million, followed by Hamburg at 1.7 million.

S1, S2, S4 all going back to school on Monday. I am a teacher - rule is max 12 in a classroom, means kids cannot get their usual teacher and some cases will have teachers of other subjects supervising them. We will therefore continue with online lessons, but the kids are in school instead of at home. Makes no sense whatsoever. Our kids have been great at following the lessons. This provision will actually make it worse. Unglaublich!

Unfortunately my annual jaunt to see my friend at his music festival in Oberhausen in July is cancelled this year! 

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47 minutes ago, allyo said:

If they have a decent system then they'll find it in junk

Read a lot of what was in the dossier, I’ll be surprised if Doncaster survives this , he seems to be economical with the truth .

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34 minutes ago, Norgethistle said:

1st case in Europe was actually France  on 24th January, Followed by Germany (27th) then Italy (30th) and UK, Spain & Sweden on the 31st. Norway 26th Feb & Denmark 2th Feb.

Interesting is when Lock-downs (Nationally) came in

France - 16th March = 52 Days 

Germany - 22 March = 55 Days

Italy - 21st March = 51 Days

UK - 23rd March =53 Days

Spain - 14th March = 44 Days

Sweden = None

Norway - Social distancing 12th March = 16 Days

Denmark - 13th March = 16 Days

 

Compare the different strategies, length to lock-down, severity of lock-down and there is no rhyme nor reason to either the infection rate per million or death rate per million

 

 

 

10491213-C127-42D2-B94B-A70E9B0722E3.png

Edited 32 minutes ago by Norgethistle

Lock down dates are a bit missleading. If you take Ireland the UK. Officially UK went into lockdown on the 23rd March and Ireland on the 27th March. However Ireland had by the 12th March already announced social distancing and cancelled a Rugby International and St Patricks day celebrations. Meanwhile in the UK the cheltenham races were in full flight and we still played some fairly big sporting events up until Friday the 20th. We also didn't introduce social distancing until the 17th March.

Also the WHO recommendations (test,trace, isolate) were in some cases not adopted by countries and in some cases on different dates to the lockdown adopted you lower the death rate.  Germany was the only nation that really did that and was doing it in January so could afford to be slightly less restrictive in some of its lockdown approach.

The best description I've seen of this is the table below which shows the number of days after the 3rd know death that countries took various actions. Days are calculated from the 3rd confirmed death, 0* means they did it before the 3rd confirmed death, no date means they've not done it. On every key decision the UK is almost the slowest to take the decision and with the exception of Sweden has taken the least actions.

Image

Scotland was a little quicker in taking these steps in relation to the 3rd death. Unfortunately the above table doesn't give information for Scotland but I believe the 3rd death in this country was on the 16th March whereas in the UK it was on the 9th March. We will have the same implentation date as the UK but have done it faster post our 3rd death. The big miss was Scotland needed to shut its border with England whilst the UK shut its external borders.

The UK government really needs to explain why it didn't implement measures more quickly and hasn't done others.

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34 minutes ago, laukat said:

Lock down dates are a bit missleading. If you take Ireland the UK. Officially UK went into lockdown on the 23rd March and Ireland on the 27th March. However Ireland had by the 12th March already announced social distancing and cancelled a Rugby International and St Patricks day celebrations. Meanwhile in the UK the cheltenham races were in full flight and we still played some fairly big sporting events up until Friday the 20th. We also didn't introduce social distancing until the 17th March.

Also the WHO recommendations (test,trace, isolate) were in some cases not adopted by countries and in some cases on different dates to the lockdown adopted you lower the death rate.  Germany was the only nation that really did that and was doing it in January so could afford to be slightly less restrictive in some of its lockdown approach.

The best description I've seen of this is the table below which shows the number of days after the 3rd know death that countries took various actions. Days are calculated from the 3rd confirmed death, 0* means they did it before the 3rd confirmed death, no date means they've not done it. On every key decision the UK is almost the slowest to take the decision and with the exception of Sweden has taken the least actions.

Image

Scotland was a little quicker in taking these steps in relation to the 3rd death. Unfortunately the above table doesn't give information for Scotland but I believe the 3rd death in this country was on the 16th March whereas in the UK it was on the 9th March. We will have the same implentation date as the UK but have done it faster post our 3rd death. The big miss was Scotland needed to shut its border with England whilst the UK shut its external borders.

The UK government really needs to explain why it didn't implement measures more quickly and hasn't done others.

That’s Norway just announced all schools, bars restaurants etc are reopening. 

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The thing that sttrikes me about that chart is that I remember the British government emphasising the advantage we had in being 2 weeks behind Italy, and how we could learn from Italy, and that they then went on to do everything almost exactly the same as Italy.

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8 minutes ago, Norgethistle said:

That’s Norway just announced all schools, bars restaurants etc are reopening. 

Good news 

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3 minutes ago, allyo said:

The thing that sttrikes me about that chart is that I remember the British government emphasising the advantage we had in being 2 weeks behind Italy, and how we could learn from Italy, and that they then went on to do everything almost exactly the same as Italy.

We basically wasted time 

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40 minutes ago, laukat said:

The UK government really needs to explain why it didn't implement measures more quickly and hasn't done others.

Apologies for selective quoting.

Watched the Rabb briefing today. Lost count of the number of times he said that they will be doing x or y in the coming weeks. Also casting doubt on the efficacy of measures that have been taken by countries who have successfully dealt with this virus. It is deeply frustrating. The reaction of this Government to this virus is shocking.

When Johnson won the election he thought he would spend four years jingoistically dog whistling to Little Englanders while his smug cohorts dismantled the country and lined their pockets. Now that they have to actually protect the citizens, their actions have been woefully inadequate. Criminally so, I would suggest. 

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2 hours ago, jlsarmy said:

Read a lot of what was in the dossier, I’ll be surprised if Doncaster survives this , he seems to be economical with the truth .

Is this available anywhere?

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