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What if they shut down the season?

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Just now, Norgethistle said:

I agree not one political party or government has got everything right.

What we knew in January we acted accordingly, but what we know now I think we can speed up the relaxation of measures.

Norway locked down very quick, but when you look at 1st confirmed case to lockdown dates in Spain, Germany and UK they are basically the same, difference being Germany restrictions were less than Spain, UK and Italy

To be honest, there is going to be a best selling book about statistics on this virus in a few years from now, just an explanation of what we have gone through … maybe they will call it, ' WTF just happened?'

Why did Greece do so well>, did China do as well as they say they did?, why did right wing 'populist governments' do so badly? [America, England and Brazil] Were the Swedish Governments tactics the best in the long run?

One thing that is a worry in the UK, is the assumption that the virus has been 'beaten', or it has 'gone away' …. that may hurt us in the months to come.

 

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11 minutes ago, ARu-Strathbungo said:

To be honest, there is going to be a best selling book about statistics on this virus in a few years from now, just an explanation of what we have gone through … maybe they will call it, ' WTF just happened?'

Why did Greece do so well>, did China do as well as they say they did?, why did right wing 'populist governments' do so badly? [America, England and Brazil] Were the Swedish Governments tactics the best in the long run?

One thing that is a worry in the UK, is the assumption that the virus has been 'beaten', or it has 'gone away' …. that may hurt us in the months to come.

 


this is an interesting article on why and how Greece has managed so well.....

https://bylinetimes.com/2020/04/16/greece-teaches-the-uk-a-lesson-on-how-to-respond-to-the-coronavirus-crisis/

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2 minutes ago, javeajag said:


this is an interesting article on why and how Greece has managed so well.....

https://bylinetimes.com/2020/04/16/greece-teaches-the-uk-a-lesson-on-how-to-respond-to-the-coronavirus-crisis/

Yes, it's like they were quick to impose a lockdown simply because they could not afford to contemplate any other methods.

I think South Korea also did well because they had previous experience of dealing with virus control.

I guess we should be looking at countries like Greece to see how they propose to start playing football again?

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4 minutes ago, ARu-Strathbungo said:

Yes, it's like they were quick to impose a lockdown simply because they could not afford to contemplate any other methods.

I think South Korea also did well because they had previous experience of dealing with virus control.

I guess we should be looking at countries like Greece to see how they propose to start playing football again?

Yes that’s interesting .,,,like Vietnam you cant afford to let the virus spread so you lock down early etc etc .....were we complacent very likely but Asia learned lessons from SARS we clearly didn’t but Germany , Austria , Denmark and Norway have clearly handled it better than us 

maybe Greece will be a football model!

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48 minutes ago, ARu-Strathbungo said:

To be honest, there is going to be a best selling book about statistics on this virus in a few years from now, just an explanation of what we have gone through … maybe they will call it, ' WTF just happened?'

Why did Greece do so well>, did China do as well as they say they did?, why did right wing 'populist governments' do so badly? [America, England and Brazil] Were the Swedish Governments tactics the best in the long run?

One thing that is a worry in the UK, is the assumption that the virus has been 'beaten', or it has 'gone away' …. that may hurt us in the months to come.

 

I think it is far too early to make any judgements. Statistics between countries are not yet comparable, they may never be measured in exactly the same way.

I do not think bringing politics into it helps either - Hungary and Poland could easily be described as right wing populists as well. They seem to be doing well. The SNP is not right-wing populist, yet Scotland has not been much different to England. If we are able to continue the lock-down after RUK, we could surely have started it before RUK, but chose not to.

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2 minutes ago, Colognejag said:

I think it is far too early to make any judgements. Statistics between countries are not yet comparable, they may never be measured in exactly the same way.

I do not think bringing politics into it helps either - Hungary and Poland could easily be described as right wing populists as well. They seem to be doing well. The SNP is not right-wing populist, yet Scotland has not been much different to England. If we are able to continue the lock-down after RUK, we could surely have started it before RUK, but chose not to.

My understanding is that legally Scotland was unable  to have a lockdown separately from the U.K. 

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Just now, javeajag said:

My understanding is that legally Scotland was unable  to have a lockdown separately from the U.K. 

Fair enough. Just seemed logical that if we can after, then presumed we could before...

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24 minutes ago, javeajag said:

Yes that’s interesting .,,,like Vietnam you cant afford to let the virus spread so you lock down early etc etc .....were we complacent very likely but Asia learned lessons from SARS we clearly didn’t but Germany , Austria , Denmark and Norway have clearly handled it better than us 

maybe Greece will be a football model!

The original plan for lockdown was to flatten the curve to ensure current and new NHS capacity was not overwhelmed.

What has happened in UK was not flattening the curve but delaying the curve, current NHS capacity wasn’t reached and the excess capacity wasn’t used.

The virus is not going away. We are in all probability a year away from a wide spread available tested and approved vaccine.

If lockdown isn’t opened sooner (but controlled like Scandinavia and Germany) you will have it willingly breached as people get fed up seeing no progress and have an uncontrolled spike. Even if it’s not breached on current R rate and % in 2 years time the UK will still be on lockdown as not enough people (5% of population on current models) will have been infected and a 69% infection rate is needed for herd immunity.

How long can any government keep paying furlough or unemployment benefit or rates relief at this level, with the economy on hold ie no tax income?

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3 minutes ago, javeajag said:

My understanding is that legally Scotland was unable  to have a lockdown separately from the U.K. 

That’s not correct the same as Scotland and Wales can stay under tighter measures longer, it’s devolved. The kick off would have been huge from those within Scotland if it had locked down earlier, plus it wouldn’t have had the financial backing from the chancellor to fund the furlough scheme

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As Douglas Adams said in Hitchhikers Guide To The Galaxy ....

It is a well-known fact that those people who must want to rule people are, ipso facto, those least suited to do it... anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job.

It is easy enough for us to make judgements in hindsight from the comfort of our armchairs, but those who had to make the decisions had one hell of a job. On the whole, I think that both Scottish and UK governments have done decent jobs in protecting their citizens. Would they have done things different in hindsight ? Probably, but they had to go with the facts and scientific advice at the time. The advice that they are currently getting from their experts is what they are implementing and I would rather that they followed the experts advice than go their own way.

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1 hour ago, Colognejag said:

I think it is far too early to make any judgements. Statistics between countries are not yet comparable, they may never be measured in exactly the same way.

I do not think bringing politics into it helps either - Hungary and Poland could easily be described as right wing populists as well. They seem to be doing well. The SNP is not right-wing populist, yet Scotland has not been much different to England. If we are able to continue the lock-down after RUK, we could surely have started it before RUK, but chose not to.

A I said earlier … in a few years there will be a book explaining the statistics of the various countries. Factors like … (i) slow to shutdown (ii) population density (iii) age demographics (iv) people with health issues etc etc etc I don't think anyone expects an accurate assessment now, and it is more likely the longer the statisticians and the medical experts in this field study the data, the more accurate the findings.

Scotland seemed to me to have run the whole lockdown scenario better than England, the message has been clearer and they have not obfuscated the facts. Scotland have been notably better in managing this crisis …. but that is just my personal opinion.

I really didn't mean to bring politics into the discussion, but when you have a populist hard right government, which lied to get into power in the first place, it is really hard to ignore the fact they have made some dreadful errors in handling this pandemic. Plus it is worth asking why the NHS was so poorly prepared to handle a crisis like this!

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1 hour ago, Norgethistle said:

That’s not correct the same as Scotland and Wales can stay under tighter measures longer, it’s devolved. The kick off would have been huge from those within Scotland if it had locked down earlier, plus it wouldn’t have had the financial backing from the chancellor to fund the furlough scheme

Maybe your right....my understanding is that some aspects of locking down required the approval of the U.K. govt who wanted all parts of the U.K. to go in tandem hence we all went at the speed of the Uk

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1 hour ago, Norgethistle said:

The original plan for lockdown was to flatten the curve to ensure current and new NHS capacity was not overwhelmed.

What has happened in UK was not flattening the curve but delaying the curve, current NHS capacity wasn’t reached and the excess capacity wasn’t used.

The virus is not going away. We are in all probability a year away from a wide spread available tested and approved vaccine.

If lockdown isn’t opened sooner (but controlled like Scandinavia and Germany) you will have it willingly breached as people get fed up seeing no progress and have an uncontrolled spike. Even if it’s not breached on current R rate and % in 2 years time the UK will still be on lockdown as not enough people (5% of population on current models) will have been infected and a 69% infection rate is needed for herd immunity.

How long can any government keep paying furlough or unemployment benefit or rates relief at this level, with the economy on hold ie no tax income?

We are coming out of lockdown !

 

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All this, 'who did what, when?' is very good, but will we see social distancing and live football sometime during 2020? 

Another body blow for sports like football is the advice that singing in a choir will spread the virus, even if you are the full 2 meters apart!     Tragic for our JL choir!!

Could we be looking at putting the Championship, League 1 and League 2 football clubs into a sort of 'care and maintenance only' stasis?

 

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44 minutes ago, javeajag said:

We are coming out of lockdown !

 

The current plan for May 28 is still stricter restrictions than most European countries had since the start. If Scottish schools can only open part time in August then the economy will be massively restricted till schools open full time, especially for U12’s. There currently is no timeframe for a return to anything near normal, and until that returns (Like Scandinavia & Germany) then football is out the window.

Its only my opinion but I think the phase back in UK is way too slow, when you compare stats per head population with countries that have already relaxed or abolished the restrictions. 

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4 minutes ago, Norgethistle said:

The current plan for May 28 is still stricter restrictions than most European countries had since the start. If Scottish schools can only open part time in August then the economy will be massively restricted till schools open full time, especially for U12’s. There currently is no timeframe for a return to anything near normal, and until that returns (Like Scandinavia & Germany) then football is out the window.

Its only my opinion but I think the phase back in UK is way too slow, when you compare stats per head population with countries that have already relaxed or abolished the restrictions. 

Schools are generally winding down now at this time of year anyway that’s nothing new  but childcare facilities can open.....the exit from lockdown can go faster so let’s see 

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21 minutes ago, ARu-Strathbungo said:

Could we be looking at putting the Championship, League 1 and League 2 football clubs into a sort of 'care and maintenance only' stasis?

 

That is highly likely. 

There is no way that clubs outside the Premier League can play until it is safe to do so without regular testing. The QotS chairman estimated that to be £4,500 per week for a staff of 30, or a round £190k for a season (including pre-season training). Until players safety can be guaranteed without that overhead, it is just not financially viable.  

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6 minutes ago, javeajag said:

Schools are generally winding down now at this time of year anyway that’s nothing new  but childcare facilities can open.....the exit from lockdown can go faster so let’s see 

Currently child care facilities in Scotland can’t open, and no set date when they can. My sister in-law does that for a living and they have no return date

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5 minutes ago, Norgethistle said:

Currently child care facilities in Scotland can’t open, and no set date when they can. My sister in-law does that for a living and they have no return date

I read this yesterday as reopening but maybe not...
 

Staff will be able to return to schools, while there will be additional critical childcare provision, including the reopening of childminding services and outdoor nurseries. Key workers will be prioritised.

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1 hour ago, Dick Dastardly said:

As Douglas Adams said in Hitchhikers Guide To The Galaxy ....

It is a well-known fact that those people who must want to rule people are, ipso facto, those least suited to do it... anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job.

It is easy enough for us to make judgements in hindsight from the comfort of our armchairs, but those who had to make the decisions had one hell of a job. On the whole, I think that both Scottish and UK governments have done decent jobs in protecting their citizens. Would they have done things different in hindsight ? Probably, but they had to go with the facts and scientific advice at the time. The advice that they are currently getting from their experts is what they are implementing and I would rather that they followed the experts advice than go their own way.

I agree with you, DD, that those in government have had difficult decisions to make. Life and death decisions. Decisions that you and I would not want to have to make.

I don't, however,  think that the Scottish and UK governments have protected their citizens very well. What we don't know, and will never probably never know, is whether the policies they implemented did follow the expert advice they received.

The Scottish govt. can be absolved, to an extent, as they don't have complete control over their own decision making. They are reliant on the powers introduced by the UK Chancellor; they couldn't have closed the borders, if they had wanted to etc..

They have an advantage over the UK government in that they are a popular government. Elected under a PR system designed to make majority rule more difficult to achieve. I get the feeling that the FM is trusted by Scottish citizens. She is certainly a good spokesperson.

Compare and contrast with the UK PM. Elected just at the point that the virus was starting it's journey around the world. Elected by England and Wales with a mandate to give Johnny Foreigner a bloody nose, to create a land of hope and glory. It was all going to be a jolly wheeze.

The Battle of Brexit had been won but it left the country deeply divided. Nobody was ambivalent to the government, you were pro or anti. And the virus came closer. It was now a pandemic, ravaging parts of Europe. A divided nation needed to unite. Early lockdown was obviously needed but Johnny Virus wasn't going to dictate terms to this smug bunch. Bulldog Boris was sent to a hospital and shook hands with Coronavirus patients instead. History will judge.

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21 minutes ago, BowenBoys said:

I agree with you, DD, that those in government have had difficult decisions to make. Life and death decisions. Decisions that you and I would not want to have to make.

I don't, however,  think that the Scottish and UK governments have protected their citizens very well. What we don't know, and will never probably never know, is whether the policies they implemented did follow the expert advice they received.

The Scottish govt. can be absolved, to an extent, as they don't have complete control over their own decision making. They are reliant on the powers introduced by the UK Chancellor; they couldn't have closed the borders, if they had wanted to etc..

They have an advantage over the UK government in that they are a popular government. Elected under a PR system designed to make majority rule more difficult to achieve. I get the feeling that the FM is trusted by Scottish citizens. She is certainly a good spokesperson.

Compare and contrast with the UK PM. Elected just at the point that the virus was starting it's journey around the world. Elected by England and Wales with a mandate to give Johnny Foreigner a bloody nose, to create a land of hope and glory. It was all going to be a jolly wheeze.

The Battle of Brexit had been won but it left the country deeply divided. Nobody was ambivalent to the government, you were pro or anti. And the virus came closer. It was now a pandemic, ravaging parts of Europe. A divided nation needed to unite. Early lockdown was obviously needed but Johnny Virus wasn't going to dictate terms to this smug bunch. Bulldog Boris was sent to a hospital and shook hands with Coronavirus patients instead. History will judge.

Unfortunately the popularity ratings don't back that up. According to yougov.co.uk, Boris popularity is rising, up to 39 positive and 43 negative, while Nicola is falling, down to 25% positive and 47% negative 

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5 minutes ago, Dick Dastardly said:

Unfortunately the popularity ratings don't back that up. According to yougov.co.uk, Boris popularity is rising, up to 39 positive and 43 negative, while Nicola is falling, down to 25% positive and 47% negative 

Those are U.K. wide figures ....clearly they reverse in when Scotland only 

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19 minutes ago, Dick Dastardly said:

Unfortunately the popularity ratings don't back that up. According to yougov.co.uk, Boris popularity is rising, up to 39 positive and 43 negative, while Nicola is falling, down to 25% positive and 47% negative 

I would take anything YouGov says with a big pinch of salt …. they also have Ed Balls as the most popular Labour politician, and that [I would guess] is on the basis of his performance during a dancing competition?

If I am honest, I don't want politician to win popularity competitions, I want them to do the job of leading a country to the best of their ability, especially in times of crisis ….  something that can make you very unpopular!

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