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Which Clubs Might Fold (If Any)?

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Just now, scotty said:

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Updated permissions....should work now

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21 minutes ago, jaf said:

Raith and Dumbarton for sure

Clyde if they have spent heavily this season

Livi - don't see it with them unless the soft loanholders exert pressure, which the accounts suggest will not happen

Thanks for doing the analysis @jaf. The stable foundations at St Johnstone don’t surprise me. 

Are Stirling not more at risk? They have little in the way of assets and their income must be small.

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1 minute ago, sandy said:

Thanks for doing the analysis @jaf. The stable foundations at St Johnstone don’t surprise me. 

Are Stirling not more at risk? They have little in the way of assets and their income must be small.

I have used the accepted liquidity ratio of current ratio.

You can use your own knowledge to tweak the answers, but the current ratio is accepted by financial analysts as a good measure of liquidity.

As its cash flow that will kills clubs, I don't think (fixed assets) are of much use. Who is going to lend to football clubs right now, in which case it is of no securitised value, and as the Albion Rovers audit report states, the chances of property development sales are low in todays market too.

Cash and liquidity are king I think.

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56 minutes ago, jaf said:

Raith and Dumbarton for sure

Clyde if they have spent heavily this season

Livi - don't see it with them unless the soft loanholders exert pressure, which the accounts suggest will not happen

Cheers.

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1 hour ago, jaf said:

Updated permissions....should work now

Thanks for taking the time to do this, interesting spreadsheet!

The numbers for Queens Park are eyewatering … any ideas why they are?

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13 minutes ago, ARu-Strathbungo said:

Thanks for taking the time to do this, interesting spreadsheet!

The numbers for Queens Park are eyewatering … any ideas why they are?

 I have now gone through and stripped out soft loans and ranked the clubs on the current ratio excluding friendly/soft debt. Queens Park have nearly £5m of such debt and so fly up the chart to number one by excluding that.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1IbG4YDhH2dxcczYvUIivMiyfYRJgeYt88UylxUW5-B4/edit?usp=sharing

 

Edited by jaf

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5 hours ago, lady-isobel-barnett said:

The Stranraer chairman, altho' talking about his specific club, made a point that I assume could be appropriate to most part time clubs. Admittedly his club have the cushion of a bumper Cup return but he pointed out that part time clubs don't have players on two year contracts and expenditure during the closed season is minimal. I imagine most part time clubs will in effect be mothballed.

DP mentions Clyde might be in bother. Could that be because they don't own their ground and may be due rental? That and if they've contracted players into next season could be a major factor re their liquidity. 

After the Celtic cup game they immediately signed Lennon, Goodwillie and a few others in longer deals which may affect them now.

Falkirk don’t own their ground either and I presume didn’t budget for another year in league one. Was rumoured on Falkirk discussion threads that players like Sammon etc were on £2k a week in league one, plus they had to pay off McKinnon too

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6 hours ago, lady-isobel-barnett said:

The Stranraer chairman, altho' talking about his specific club, made a point that I assume could be appropriate to most part time clubs. Admittedly his club have the cushion of a bumper Cup return but he pointed out that part time clubs don't have players on two year contracts and expenditure during the closed season is minimal. I imagine most part time clubs will in effect be mothballed.

DP mentions Clyde might be in bother. Could that be because they don't own their ground and may be due rental? That and if they've contracted players into next season could be a major factor re their liquidity. 

The problem is some of them use the cash of the future to pay the liabilities of the past.

If the cash stops coming in, and they mothball in effect, they have a problem.

That's anyone with a current ratio of less than 1, it means when everything is ingathered that is due, and added to cash reserves,  and everything is paid out that is due, above 1 means there is money left, below 1 means there is not. There are at least 18 clubs with a current ratio of less than 1.

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Like lots of  markets being at the top eg Celtic or the bottom eg Brechin is the safest place to be in the current situation .....the dangerous location is in the middle

celtic  have around £30m in the bank and can eat into that and you cant imagine them not surviving this  ...Brechin can basically go into hibernation with no players and limited infrastructure to support 

clubs in the middle with players on contracts already for next season, an infrastructure to support and debts/commitments are the ones in trouble 

as has been stated cash flow kills small companies and with matchday income crucial for any clubs it’s clear if there are no fans at the start of next season to say Xmas some clubs may not make it 

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4 minutes ago, javeajag said:

Like lots of  markets being at the top eg Celtic or the bottom eg Brechin is the safest place to be in the current situation .....the dangerous location is in the middle

celtic  have around £30m in the bank and can eat into that and you cant imagine them not surviving this  ...Brechin can basically go into hibernation with no players and limited infrastructure to support 

clubs in the middle with players on contracts already for next season, an infrastructure to support and debts/commitments are the ones in trouble 

as has been stated cash flow kills small companies and with matchday income crucial for any clubs it’s clear if there are no fans at the start of next season to say Xmas some clubs may not make it 

I would guess going on who we have signed next season and staff we will need in the region of 600k to survive a year of no football, i would guess the players and possibly some staff would be smart enough to accept a minimum 50% pay cut knowing it is better that than being out of work and no income. So I would say for a full 12mths of no football we would need to find circa 300k. Unfortunately your burd Jacqui if it is to be believed when Beattie et al came back had blown what we had in the bank on Caldwell and his duds and had to be reigned back in....This does remain to be seen but we will surely find out soon the truth on that one!

 

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15 minutes ago, Pinhead said:

I would guess going on who we have signed next season and staff we will need in the region of 600k to survive a year of no football, i would guess the players and possibly some staff would be smart enough to accept a minimum 50% pay cut knowing it is better that than being out of work and no income. So I would say for a full 12mths of no football we would need to find circa 300k. Unfortunately your burd Jacqui if it is to be believed when Beattie et al came back had blown what we had in the bank on Caldwell and his duds and had to be reigned back in....This does remain to be seen but we will surely find out soon the truth on that one!

 

We’ve got 13 players under contract for next season, which is a lot considering we’ve finished bottom of the league .

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39 minutes ago, jlsarmy said:

We’ve got 13 players under contract for next season, which is a lot considering we’ve finished bottom of the league .

We have 14 players  until at least 2021, some are signed until 2022. 1 Manager, 2 assistant manager's, 1 goalkeeping coach. If there is no football next season surely we can't keep them all on. 8Players signed until 2021, 6players signed until 2022.

Edited by Auld Jag

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25 minutes ago, Auld Jag said:

We have 14 players  until at least 2021, some are signed until 2022. 1 Manager, 2 assistant manager's, 1 goalkeeping coach. If there is no football next season surely we can't keep them all on. 8Players signed until 2021, 6players signed until 2022.

If his ‘cryptic’ tweet is anything to go by it sounds like Cardle will be back at Dunfermline next season so thats one off the books (although I think his contract was up anyway).

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26 minutes ago, elevenone said:

If his ‘cryptic’ tweet is anything to go by it sounds like Cardle will be back at Dunfermline next season so thats one off the books (although I think his contract was up anyway).

Aye, he's not one of the 14.

Fox, Sneddon, Williamson, O'Ware, Brownlie, Penrice, Bannigan, Gordon, Niang, Zanatta, Lyons, Mansell, Graham, and Rudden.

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1 hour ago, Auld Jag said:

We have 14 players  until at least 2021, some are signed until 2022. 1 Manager, 2 assistant manager's, 1 goalkeeping coach. If there is no football next season surely we can't keep them all on. 8Players signed until 2021, 6players signed until 2022.

You’re right, hadn’t included Niang , no idea how we get rid of some of these players who’ll be on decent money Fox , Bannigan , Graham , O’Ware etc , unless they’ve got  relegation clauses in their contracts. 

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6 hours ago, Dark Passenger said:

Aye, he's not one of the 14.

Fox, Sneddon, Williamson, O'Ware, Brownlie, Penrice, Bannigan, Gordon, Niang, Zanatta, Lyons, Mansell, Graham, and Rudden.

15. You forgot Ross Docherty

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9 hours ago, Dark Passenger said:

Aye, he's not one of the 14.

Fox, Sneddon, Williamson, O'Ware, Brownlie, Penrice, Bannigan, Gordon, Niang, Zanatta, Lyons, Mansell, Graham, and Rudden.

Depressing to see how many of or current team are still in contract for next year/two years.

It still baffles me the length of contracts handed to some by Caldwell/McCall as reward for what has essentially been 2 years of complete failure in the championship.

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10 hours ago, Dark Passenger said:

Aye, he's not one of the 14.

Fox, Sneddon, Williamson, O'Ware, Brownlie, Penrice, Bannigan, Gordon, Niang, Zanatta, Lyons, Mansell, Graham, and Rudden.

Trying to be positive - you could make a reasonable starting 11 out of that

Fox

Williamson-Brownlie-O'Ware-Penrice

Zannata-Gordon-Bannigan-Lyons

Graham-Rudden

Subs: Mansell, Niang. Sneddon

Not fussed about Cardle going. In my opinion he would have been leaving no matter what league we were in. Also if we're in league 1 then its time for Sneddon to step up and we let Fox go.

On the less positive side, I can't see how we afford that team in League 1 so either they all take reduced wages or the better ones will go (Graham, Rudden) to be replaced by loan signings to limit the wage cost and contractural tie ins.

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Given the circumstances I guess we all know it's kinda daft talking about what team we could put out. But it's a football forum, so why not.

I think Cardle was a significant part of the problem last season. He has the enthusiasm, decent stamina and experience so was difficult to leave out. However on the minus side, and probably thru age, he was a bit of a one trick pony. Cutting in from the left onto his right foot for a shot or chip being that trick. Just maybe stuck out on the right he could feed Williamson to deliver was another plus but that was rare. No one can accuse Joe of hiding but sometimes I wish he'd not accept every ball that came in his direction. When he dummied the ball for Jones to score at Cappielow it was so out of character I remarked about it at the time. Not a greedy player as such just thinks he's always best placed to be on the ball.

Btw I'd add Dean Watson onto Laukat's list. Might even be a better option on occasions than Zanatta. McIntyre's another who should be OK as a back up centreback or maybe in a back three. He may tho' be out of contract. Sena, Watson & McIntyre are certainly up to the job physically. 

Edited by lady-isobel-barnett

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